| Title | Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER) |
|---|---|
| Publication Type | Articolo su Rivista peer-reviewed |
| Year of Publication | 2004 |
| Authors | Palmer, T.N., Alessandri Andrea, Andersen U., Cantelaube P., Davey M., Délécluse P., Déqué M., Díez E., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Feddersen H., Graham R., Gualdi S., Guérémy J.-F., Hagedorn R., Hoshen M., Keenlyside N., Latif M., Lazar A., Maisonnave E., Marletto V., Morse A.P., Orfila B., Rogel P., Terres J.-M., and Thomson M.C. |
| Journal | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
| Volume | 85 |
| Pagination | 853-872 |
| ISSN | 00030007 |
| Keywords | Agriculture, climate prediction, Climatology, Crop yield, Crops, epidemiology, Global coupled climate models, Malaria control, Malaria prediction, Mathematical models, Weather forecasting |
| Abstract | A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere-ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole. © 2004 American Meteorological Society. |
| Notes | cited By 585 |
| URL | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-3543083343&doi=10.1175%2fBAMS-85-6-853&partnerID=40&md5=319ebd615cb09d9c96f7fd94c2962278 |
| DOI | 10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853 |
| Citation Key | Palmer2004853 |
