| Title | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
|---|---|
| Publication Type | Articolo su Rivista peer-reviewed |
| Year of Publication | 2009 |
| Authors | Weisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Palmer T.N., Alessandri Andrea, Arribas A., Déqué M., Keenlyside N., MacVean M., Navarra A., and Rogel P. |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 36 |
| ISSN | 00948276 |
| Keywords | Annual prediction, atmosphere-ocean coupling, climate prediction, data set, Data sets, Demeter, ensemble forecasting, Ensemble prediction, Errors, hindcasting, Hindcasts, Improved models, International community, Multi-model, Multi-model ensemble, Ocean circulation models, Oceanography, Pacific Ocean, Pacific Ocean (Tropical), Probabilistic Skill, RMS errors, Satellite data, sea surface temperature, Simulators, Systematic errors, Weather forecasting |
| Abstract | A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4-6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| Notes | cited By 143 |
| URL | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-72049088496&doi=10.1029%2f2009GL040896&partnerID=40&md5=6a4f99a80a53026d241adb07b9263786 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2009GL040896 |
| Citation Key | Weisheimer2009 |
